Wallace: Rubio run for White House would set off chain reaction

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Florida’s political landscape is on the verge of a massive shakeup.

When Marco Rubio makes his announcement eight days about whether he’ll run for president, he will set into motion a chain of events that could turn politics in the state — and in this region — upside down.

Not only could Florida be looking for a new senator, it could also be in the market for a new chief financial officer and a new lieutenant governor, not to mention a pair of new congressmen.

And by the time the dust settles, this region could have:

1. the first Sarasota-area resident in the U.S. Senate.

2. a new congressman.

3. a state cabinet member from Manatee County.

4. a new state senator.

5. rare vacancies for sheriff and supervisor of elections in Manatee.

6. A slew of Florida House seats.

It all hinges on April 13.

When Rubio steps to the podium at Freedom Tower in Miami, he is expected to announce that he will make a bid for the presidency.

Though he has only been in the U.S. Senate for four years, Rubio has built the sort of national profile that no other senator from the Sunshine State has matched in so short a time.

Within three years, Rubio was vetted as a possible vice presidential candidate, was chosen to introduce Mitt Romney at the Republican National Convention in 2012, and led the Senate Republicans on an ambitious — though failed — immigration reform bill.

Now Rubio is facing the prospects of doing what no Floridian has ever done: win the Republican nomination for president.

“For me the decision comes down to where is the best place for me to serve our country at this moment in my career and in my life,” Rubio said in an interview with the Herald-Tribune last month.

When Rubio makes his announcement, there will be hardly a key GOP player not watching, in part because of the prospect of his Senate position becoming an enticing open seat.

Already there is talk that Florida’s elected chief financial officer, Jeff Atwater, is preparing to run if Rubio doesn’t seek re-election. Gov. Rick Scott’s 2014 running mate, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, former Florida House Speaker Will Weatherford and U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, R-Ponte Vedra Beach, also have gained buzz as potential Senate challengers if Rubio leaves.

Also lurking in the conversation is U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Longboat Key, who in 2006 and 2010 seriously considered running for the Senate.

Buchanan is enamored with his growing seniority in the House, but made clear in several interviews that if Rubio runs for the Senate he will seriously consider running for the Senate, where he has said the prospect of being one of 100 has great appeal.

“I have had a lot of people tell me to consider it,” Buchanan said in an interview last month.

“I haven’t ruled it out.”

It could be Buchanan’s last shot at having an open seat for the foreseeable future. If Buchanan passes on 2016 and Sen. Bill Nelson, a Democrat runs for re-election in 2018, it could be 2024 or beyond before another open Senate seat appears. Buchanan would be in his 70s by then.

Buchanan could be appealing to national Republicans because of his D.C. experience, his private-sector background and his fundraising track record.

Buchanan’s tenure in the House would follow him to the Senate in that it would give him a seniority advantage in the Senate chambers that none of the other potential candidates would have.

His years in the House would place him ahead of other would-be Senate freshman in 2017 who do not have past House service experience.

And though Buchanan has been in Congress for eight years, he has 30 years of experience running printing companies and car dealerships. That is real-world business experience outside of politics that could be appealing to an electorate increasingly upset with the political establishment.

Finally, Buchanan served as the National Republican Congressional Committee’s finance chairman and now has a national fundraising network he could tap into in what would likely be a $100 million battle for Florida.

If Buchanan does decide to run, the political landscape will likely get chaotic in Sarasota and Manatee counties. State Sen. Nancy Detert, state Rep. Greg Steube, Manatee Supervisor of Elections Mike Bennett and Sarasota Sheriff Tom Knight would immediately be considered potential candidates for a run for Congress — or at least begin working the phones to gauge interest.

All have said they would definitely consider making a run.

In 2006, Detert won Sarasota County over Buchanan in a GOP primary for what was then the 13th Congressional District. But Buchanan won the race on the strength of beating her in Manatee. Detert said after eight years in the state Senate, she thinks she’d be taken even more seriously in 2016.

Steube is currently planning to run to replace Detert when her term in the Senate ends in 2018, but he has said that if the seat in Congress opens up, he’d be interested in exploring that instead.

Bennett said that while he has filed for re-election, he’d have to think about running for Buchanan’s seat if it opened. In 2012, Bennett filed to run for Congress against Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Tampa, but changed course when the district was redrawn without any of Manatee County.

The wild card could be Knight, a lifelong law enforcement officer. Knight filed to run for re-election in 2016, but said he’s definitely had conversations with his wife about the prospects of running for Congress.

“It is intriguing,” Knight said.

And don’t forget the Democrats. The last time Sarasota and Manatee had an open seat for Congress, Democrat Christine Jennings came within 369 votes of winning the seat in 2006. Former State Rep. Keith Fitzgerald, a Sarasota Democrat, said a Democrat would still have a tough race on their hands, but it is a much more friendly district for Democrats than it was even back then because of redistricting.

If Detert, Bennett, Knight and Steube run, that will create four additional open seats for offices throughout the region.

It doesn’t end there, either.

If Atwater runs for the Senate, Lakewood Ranch developer Pat Neal, a former state senator, has let GOP insiders know that he’ll be seriously interested in running for chief financial officer. Last January, when Atwater considered leaving his position to become a university president, Neal started making moves to run for CFO.

Atwater didn’t get the position at Florida Atlantic University, and Neal had to put his plans on hold.

Neal has said he is still interested in getting back into public service and still is weighing the potential of running for CFO.

Sarasota Republican Party Chairman Joe Gruters said it’s clear a lot hinges on April 13.

If Rubio simply seeks re-election to the Senate it means everyone carries on as they are. But if he jumps, Gruters said, it’ll be a wild ride in 2016.

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Jeremy Wallace

Jeremy Wallace has covered politics for more than 15 years. He can be reached by email or call (941) 361-4966. ""More Wallace" Make sure to "Like" HT Politics on Facebook for all your breaking political news.
Last modified: April 6, 2015
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