TALLAHASSEE -- Florida’s gubernatorial election is shaping up to be a tight, ugly contest that is turning off voters.
A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows former Gov. Charlie Crist and Gov. Rick Scott in a dead heat, with Crist leading 39 to 37 percent, with Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie at 9 percent.
Gov. Rick Scott, left, and Charlie Crist. (AP photos)
In a head-to-head race, Crist leads Scott 45 to 40 percent among registered Florida voters, down from a 48-38 percent lead in an April 30 poll from Quinnipiac.
“Voters don’t like either of the major party candidates,” Peter Brown, a Quinnipiac pollster, said. “They don’t think either candidate is honest and trustworthy. They have unfavorable opinions of both ... That to some degree may explain why Mr. Wyllie is doing as well as he is.”
Voters have been hit by a wave of more than $19 million in television advertising, with much of it focused on negative attacks on the candidates. Scott has spent $16.1 million to Crist’s $3 million, according to a new analysis by the Scripps/Tribune Capital Bureau.
The high negatives in the poll, as well as support for a Libertarian, who remains unknown by more than 90 percent of the voters, are “a reflection of some unhappiness in the electorate with the tone of the campaign,” Brown said.
“There’s an old maxim in politics which is you can’t throw mud without getting some on yourself,” Brown said. “That seem to be what’s happening with Mr. Crist and Mr. Scott.”
Wyllie’s support seems to be drawing away some independent voters and younger voters from Crist, although Brown warned the sample of Wyllie’s supporters was too small for “serious analysis.”
Brown also cautioned that third-party candidates’ support in pre-election polls doesn’t always translate into Election Day votes.
In the 2013 governor’s race in Virginia, the Libertarian candidate received as much as 13 percent in pre-election polls but ended up with 6.5 percent of the vote.
But there are troubling numbers for both major candidates.
• A majority of voters — 51-40 percent — say Scott does not deserve to be re-elected.
• Roughly half the voters find neither Scott (51-40 percent) nor Crist (48-39 percent) is honest or trustworthy.
• Scott had one of his best job approval ratings in almost four years, although his numbers remain upside down with a 43-48 percent job approval rating. Scott also had a negative 40-45 percent favorability rating.
• Crist had a negative favorability rating at 40-42 percent, indicating Scott’s attack ads have had an impact on his rival, who had a positive 43-36 percent favorability rating in April.
• Scott has the edge (54-38 percent) in “strong leadership qualities” over Crist (49-43 percent).
• Crist is seen as “more compassionate” than Scott, with a 48-36 percent lead.
Both Democrats and Republicans found bright spots in the poll, with the Democrats highlighting the fact that Crist is either tied or ahead of Scott despite the incumbent governor’s heavy advantage in the early television advertising.
“Polls go up and down, but we remain focused on building a campaign that can communicate our plan for building a better economy by improving schools and strengthening small businesses and the middle class and allows us to withstand whatever the Scott campaign checkbook throws at us,” said Steve Schale, a Crist campaign adviser.
Republicans said the poll, which does not weight for party affiliation, ended up with a projected electorate of 31 percent Democrats, 28 percent Republicans and 32 percent independents. Republicans expect this year’s electorate to more closely reflect the last non-presidential election in 2010, where the GOP had a 44-40 percent advantage.
“Gov. Scott doesn’t make decisions based on polls, but Charlie Crist does,” said Greg Blair, a Scott campaign spokesman. “That’s how he got our state into such a mess when he was governor, always chasing the next election for the next office, with no vision for Florida’s future.”
The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,251 registered voters between July 17 and July 21, with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Brown said Quinnipiac will narrow its polling to “likely” voters in the fall.
Other interesting tidbits in the poll include:
• There was no head-to-head matchup between Crist and former state Sen. Nan Rich, D-Weston, who face each other in the Aug. 26 primary. But the poll showed Scott leading Rich 41-34 percent in a two-way race.
• Crist leads among Hispanics, with a 37 to 31 percent edge in a three-way field. Both Scott and Crist have Hispanic running mates — Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera and Miami-Dade Democratic chair Annette Taddeo.
• Crist has a 61 to 12 percent advantage among African-American voters in a three-way race.
EARLIER: Former Gov. Charlie Crist leads Gov. Rick Scott by a 45 to 40 percent margin in a new poll from Quinnipiac University.
But the race tightens to a tossup _ 39-37 percent for Crist _ when Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie is added to the mix, drawing 9 percent of the vote. However, nine out of 10 voters say they don’t know enough about Wyllie to form an opinion.
“The campaign to be Florida’s next governor tightens slightly and takes on a new dimension with a third candidate in the running,” Peter Brown, a Quinnipiac pollster, said in a statement. “Libertarian Adrian Wyllie is not, at this point, a serious contender to win the governorship. But he may have a great deal to say about who does win.”
After a barrage of television ads from Scott, with only a partial response from Crist, Scott has narrowed Crist’s lead from a 48-38 percent advantage in an April 30 Quinnipiac poll.
But a majority of voters _ 51-40 percent _ say Scott does not deserve to be re-elected.
The negative tone of the race has also impacted both candidates, with roughly half the voters saying they find neither Scott (51-40 percent) nor Crist (48-39 percent) is honest or trustworthy.
Scott leads former state Sen. Nan Rich, D-Weston, who is facing Crist in the Aug. 26 Democratic primary, by a 41-34 percent margin in a two-way race.
Quinnipiac said Scott had one of his best job approval ratings in almost four years, although his numbers remain upside down with a 43-48 percent job approval rating. Scott also had a negative 40-45 percent favorability rating.
Crist also had a negative favorability rating at 40-42 percent, indicating Scott’s attack ads have had an impact on his rival, who had a positive 43-36 percent favorability rating in April.
Voters give Scott (54-38 percent) the edge in “strong leadership qualities” voters over Crist (49-43 percent).
Quinnipiac surveyed 1,251 registered voters between July 17 and July 21, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent.
